Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN -600 MRMK +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | GTWN -5.3 (-3.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -4.9 (-2.9) | 142.9 (-6.9) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -3.6 (-1.6) | 142.8 (-6.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -3.1 (-1.1) | 144.8 (-8.8) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -3.5 (-1.5) | 144.0 (-8.0) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 13-3 |
| Home | 7-12 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.9 | 64.6 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#195) | 0.0 (#164) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#247) | 0.32 (#159) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#196) | 0.59 (#149) |
| RPI | 0.448 (#253) | 0.473 (#212) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | MRMK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 44.5% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 23.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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