Betting Lines
| Spread | PFW -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | PFW -600 GB +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PFW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PFW +4 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | PFW -16.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (+1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PFW -11.4 (-7.4) | 144.9 (+1.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PFW -10.4 (-6.4) | 141.4 (+4.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PFW -11.4 (-7.4) | 140.8 (+5.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PFW -11.2 (-7.2) | 141.6 (+4.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | GB 64 – 56 PFW |
| Feb 13, 2026 | GB 76 – 59 PFW |
| Jan 1, 2026 | GB 72 – 54 PFW |
| Feb 9, 2025 | PFW 89 – 74 GB |
| Dec 29, 2024 | PFW 83 – 67 GB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PFW | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 10-8 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.3 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 70.2 |
| Massey | 6.0 (#82) | -4.1 (#249) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#63) | -0.61 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#77) | -1.34 (#254) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#92) | 0.428 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PFW | GB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.4% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 20.9% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 18.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 43.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.4% | 8.8% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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