Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | HPU -1000 MORG +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HPU +18 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | HPU -22.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.1 (-38.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -14.8 (+3.2) | 151.2 (-15.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -15.6 (+2.4) | 157.5 (-21.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -16.0 (+2.0) | 157.9 (-21.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -16.0 (+2.0) | 157.3 (-21.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 13-3 | 7-7 |
| Home | 16-1 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-5 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 80.0 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#132) | -13.5 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#220) | -3.64 (#353) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#181) | -5.07 (#348) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#302) | 0.365 (#332) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 43.2 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.57 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 38.8% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 58.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 9.7% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 58.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.6% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.