Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | MUR +163 BRAD -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +7 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -6.8 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.5 (-1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -6.3 (+13.3) | 148.5 (+2.5) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -6.8 (+13.8) | 146.0 (+5.0) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -6.8 (+13.8) | 146.8 (+4.2) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -6.4 (+13.4) | 150.5 (+0.5) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | BRAD 87 – 78 MUR |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MUR 86 – 66 BRAD |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRAD 70 – 62 MUR |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BRAD 85 – 83 MUR |
| Jan 18, 2025 | BRAD 74 – 61 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 13-7 |
| Home | 8-8 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -5.5 (#272) | 7.7 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.62 (#295) | 4.04 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#301) | 5.61 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.370 (#327) | 0.802 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.2% | 42.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 67.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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