Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | VAN -140 BC +118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BC +18 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | BC -5.8 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (-5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BC -4.0 (-14.0) | 143.9 (-1.9) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BC -3.4 (-14.6) | 144.6 (-2.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BC -3.9 (-14.1) | 145.6 (-3.6) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BC -4.8 (-13.2) | 146.1 (-4.1) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 8-10 | 10-6 |
| Away | 1-9 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -7.6 (#308) | 4.7 (#101) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#222) | 1.06 (#98) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.99 (#241) | 1.66 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#244) | 0.578 (#77) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 1.15 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.6% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 14.4% |
Game Analysis
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