Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Over |
| Money | TULN -1200 PV +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TULN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TULN +21 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | TULN -6.1 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.1 (+22.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TULN -6.9 (+14.1) | 159.1 (+15.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -6.4 (+14.6) | 147.9 (+27.1) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -6.0 (+15.0) | 149.1 (+25.9) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TULN -7.4 (+13.6) | 156.5 (+18.5) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TULN | PV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 5-13 |
| Home | 11-6 | 5-6 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-15 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 68.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 77.3 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#99) | 5.4 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.30 (#79) | 1.75 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#81) | 2.19 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#145) | 0.645 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TULN | PV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.5% | 38.1% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.5% | 42.0% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 18.8% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 35.4% | 30.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 45.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.5% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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