Betting Lines
| Spread | PAC -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | PAC -163 CSUN +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PAC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUN +11 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | CSUN -2.6 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PAC -1.0 (-12.0) | 142.4 (+6.6) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUN -0.7 (-10.3) | 140.8 (+8.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUN -0.4 (-10.6) | 141.6 (+7.4) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUN -0.4 (-10.6) | 143.8 (+5.2) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PAC | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 0-16 | 9-11 |
| Home | 5-12 | 9-7 |
| Away | 1-13 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L23 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.4 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -11.2 (#336) | -2.1 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#213) | -0.67 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#239) | -1.74 (#267) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#180) | 0.383 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PAC | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.4% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 23.9% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 6.1 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 18.5% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.4% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 74.8% | 77.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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