Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | CP +400 SJSU -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CP +4 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -6.1 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.6 (+27.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -5.7 (+9.7) | 134.4 (+23.6) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -6.1 (+10.1) | 132.9 (+25.1) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -4.8 (+8.8) | 132.1 (+25.9) | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -8.6 (+12.6) | 130.3 (+27.7) | 24% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 15, 2024 | SJSU 107 – 100 CP |
| Dec 21, 2022 | SJSU 65 – 43 CP |
| Dec 13, 2020 | CP 73 – 71 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CP | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 0-20 | 2-16 |
| Home | 3-11 | 6-9 |
| Away | 0-16 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L20 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#296) | 5.6 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.29 (#206) | 0.82 (#115) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#245) | 1.15 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#232) | 0.567 (#86) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CP | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 30.6 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 25.0% |
| FT Rate | 14.1% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 43.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.7% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 39.8% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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