Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | SJSU -225 CP +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +7 | 207 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -0.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.6 (+46.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -3.1 (+3.9) | 152.0 (+55.0) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -3.0 (+4.0) | 152.5 (+54.5) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -1.8 (+5.2) | 151.7 (+55.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -3.4 (+3.6) | 152.0 (+55.0) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2023 | CP 81 – 77 SJSU |
| Dec 21, 2022 | SJSU 65 – 43 CP |
| Dec 13, 2020 | CP 73 – 71 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | CP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-20 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 8-12 |
| Home | 7-9 | 9-5 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-13 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.2 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.7 | 83.4 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#214) | 1.2 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#274) | 0.56 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.42 (#259) | 0.52 (#145) |
| RPI | 0.432 (#290) | 0.531 (#121) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | CP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 23.0% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.6% | 53.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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