Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.0 Under |
| Money | UNM -305 LT +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +9 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -6.3 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (-7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -5.8 (+3.2) | 143.1 (-4.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -5.0 (+4.0) | 142.3 (-3.3) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -4.1 (+4.9) | 144.4 (-5.4) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -4.5 (+4.5) | 143.3 (-4.3) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | LT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-10 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-4 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 8-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#40) | 10.4 (#39) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#137) | 3.10 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.50 (#159) | 5.01 (#14) |
| RPI | 0.511 (#153) | 0.674 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | LT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 43.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.6% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 42.2 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.4 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 31.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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