Betting Lines
| Spread | UTA -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | UTA -138 ACU +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTA +15 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | UTA -2.2 (+12.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTA -1.7 (+13.3) | 144.6 (+12.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTA -1.1 (+13.9) | 143.5 (+13.5) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTA -1.0 (+14.0) | 145.5 (+11.5) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTA -0.5 (+14.5) | 146.0 (+11.0) | 54% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | UTA 64 – 57 ACU |
| Feb 13, 2026 | ACU 67 – 63 UTA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UTA 82 – 72 ACU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | ACU 70 – 59 UTA |
| Jan 25, 2025 | UTA 79 – 76 ACU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTA | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-14 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 10-10 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-6 |
| Away | 5-10 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#230) | 1.4 (#141) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.43 (#288) | 0.67 (#128) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.32 (#291) | 0.92 (#134) |
| RPI | 0.433 (#271) | 0.585 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTA | ACU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.3% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.3% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 32.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.3% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 27.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 10.2% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 76.7% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 29.9% |
Game Analysis
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