Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -21.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -5000 NJIT +2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +18 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -27.6 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -20.3 (-2.3) | 137.0 (+17.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -20.3 (-2.3) | 136.9 (+17.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -22.3 (-4.3) | 136.1 (+17.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -23.2 (-5.2) | 134.0 (+20.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | NJIT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 7-21 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 3-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 5-8 |
| Away | 5-7 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.6 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 4.7 (#100) | -16.4 (#358) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#66) | -2.57 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#72) | -3.61 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#56) | 0.311 (#353) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | NJIT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 28.0% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 33.3% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 58.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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