Hallelujah, here she comes. "Skateaway" - Dire Straits
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–8 on winners spread MAE 14.3 39 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Mississippi State @ Georgia Tech -11.2 137.2 15% 59–67 ✗
Cincinnati @ Howard -7.2 156.8 26% 86–81 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Indiana State +5.9 154.2 70% 48–77 ✓
South Carolina State @ Furman +20.3 172.7 97% 78–86 ✓
Charleston Southern @ The Citadel +15.2 131.8 92% 52–81 ✓
William & Mary @ Norfolk State -1.3 152.3 45% 62–96 ✗
Western Carolina @ Tennessee Tech -8.7 144.8 21% 69–65 ✓
Wagner @ Providence +16.5 121.3 93% 52–86 ✓
Rider @ Maryland +10.4 109.3 83% 76–103 ✓
Notre Dame @ South Carolina +16.6 132.6 93% 53–65 ✓
LSU @ Syracuse +1.6 153.0 56% 57–80 ✓
Miami @ Kentucky +11.6 174.5 85% 73–95 ✓
Ball State @ Little Rock +7.2 157.9 74% 64–90 ✓
Northwestern State @ UL Monroe +8.8 144.5 79% 70–74 ✓
Missouri @ Pittsburgh +21.3 139.0 97% 71–64 ✗
Eastern Illinois @ Kansas +33.4 149.3 100% 63–71 ✓
Nicholls @ Baylor +18.0 164.7 95% 70–108 ✓
Chicago State @ Loyola Chicago +17.8 138.7 95% 53–62 ✓
Utah State @ Saint Louis -11.4 146.9 15% 81–76 ✓
Oral Roberts @ Kansas State +13.2 155.8 88% 78–88 ✓
McNeese @ UAB -3.8 143.6 36% 81–60 ✓
Texas Southern @ Purdue +32.8 133.2 100% 67–99 ✓
Jackson State @ Arkansas State +11.9 163.9 86% 75–71 ✗
Southern @ Marquette +29.2 160.4 100% 56–93 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Gonzaga +25.0 132.2 99% 65–81 ✓
NC State @ Ole Miss -4.7 144.5 34% 52–72 ✗
Clemson @ Alabama +19.0 167.4 96% 85–77 ✗
Akron @ UNLV +4.3 139.6 65% 70–72 ✓
Portland @ Portland State +16.8 149.6 94% 74–75 ✓
UC San Diego @ Washington +8.9 158.0 79% 56–83 ✓
Idaho State @ Pepperdine +4.0 137.9 64% 62–77 ✓
Chattanooga @ Lipscomb +8.0 149.8 77% 68–82 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Army +5.2 121.7 68% 79–51 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Stonehill -17.8 149.5 5% 80–74 ✓
Campbell @ Jacksonville +8.8 134.5 79% 48–62 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Villanova +15.3 139.2 92% 78–65 ✗
Cleveland State @ Youngstown State +1.6 137.4 56% 69–94 ✓
Northeastern @ Seton Hall +13.4 143.9 89% 75–88 ✓
East Tennessee State @ App State +15.5 139.2 92% 61–72 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.