Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
Firestone Fieldhouse · November 29, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread PEPP -8.0 Home covered
O/U 138.0 Over
Money PEPP -350 / IDST +275
Model Predictions
Spread Total PEPP win
Actual PEPP +15 139 Won
Massey PEPP -3.9 (+11.1) — —
Massey Totals — 139.7 (-0.7) —
Bradley-Terry — — 57% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 25% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ PEPP -4.5 (+10.5) 130.4 (+8.6) 69% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML PEPP -2.8 (+12.2) 138.0 (+1.0) 58% ✓
Baseline ML PEPP -2.7 (+12.3) 138.7 (+0.3) 63% ✓
Baseline Plus ML PEPP -2.8 (+12.2) 133.8 (+5.2) 61% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 13, 2021 PEPP 65 – 60 IDST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings PEPP IDST
Overall 13-20 14-20
Conference 5-11 7-11
Home 9-8 8-5
Away 3-8 4-13
Neutral 1-4 2-2
Last 5 1-4 1-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.4 69.4
Avg Pts Against 75.2 71.8
Massey -1.0 (#182) 1.5 (#139)
Bradley-Terry -2.28 (#327) -1.29 (#275)
W. Bradley-Terry -3.46 (#328) -0.93 (#237)
RPI 0.364 (#331) 0.382 (#321)
Shooting & Four Factors PEPP IDST
FG% 47.6% 44.8%
3PT% 35.3% 27.8%
REB / G 35.5 29.5
OREB / G 11.3 9.2
AST / TO 0.87 0.80
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.7% 49.8%
TOV% 20.8% 23.5%
ORB% 33.7% 30.6%
FT Rate 22.7% 17.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.1% 48.1%
Opp TOV% 19.1% 20.6%
DRB% 77.5% 64.3%
Opp FT Rate 29.5% 26.8%

Game Analysis

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