Betting Lines
| Spread | PEPP -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | PEPP -350 IDST +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PEPP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PEPP +15 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | PEPP -3.9 (+11.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.7 (-0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PEPP -4.5 (+10.5) | 130.4 (+8.6) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PEPP -2.8 (+12.2) | 138.0 (+1.0) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PEPP -2.7 (+12.3) | 138.7 (+0.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PEPP -2.8 (+12.2) | 133.8 (+5.2) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 13, 2021 | PEPP 65 – 60 IDST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PEPP | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-8 | 8-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-13 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 69.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 71.8 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#182) | 1.5 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.28 (#327) | -1.29 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.46 (#328) | -0.93 (#237) |
| RPI | 0.364 (#331) | 0.382 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PEPP | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 29.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 23.5% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.1% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 77.5% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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