Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -26.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +38 | 178 | Won |
| Massey | BAY -16.5 (+21.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BAY -19.4 (+18.6) | 162.1 (+15.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BAY -14.8 (+23.2) | 156.0 (+22.0) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BAY -15.6 (+22.4) | 158.9 (+19.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BAY -17.1 (+20.9) | 160.9 (+17.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 29, 2022 | BAY 85 – 56 NICH |
| Nov 15, 2021 | BAY 89 – 60 NICH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BAY | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 15-2 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-5 | 8-10 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 74.9 |
| Massey | 12.1 (#29) | 2.0 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.36 (#13) | 0.63 (#135) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.06 (#11) | 0.44 (#161) |
| RPI | 0.663 (#23) | 0.564 (#89) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BAY | NICH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 45.7% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.2% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 38.1% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 38.2% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 65.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.1% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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