Betting Lines
| Spread | GONZ -27.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | GONZ -20000 CSUB +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GONZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GONZ +16 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | GONZ -25.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GONZ -22.4 (-6.4) | 134.9 (+11.1) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GONZ -18.5 (-2.5) | 136.0 (+10.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GONZ -20.6 (-4.6) | 135.2 (+10.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GONZ -20.3 (-4.3) | 134.5 (+11.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GONZ | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 14-2 | 8-12 |
| Home | 13-2 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.4 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 70.4 |
| Massey | 10.2 (#40) | -8.9 (#324) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#34) | -0.46 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.72 (#30) | -1.44 (#257) |
| RPI | 0.709 (#8) | 0.426 (#279) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GONZ | CSUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 26.9% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 32.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 58.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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