Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | SLU +215 USU -267 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SLU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +5 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | USU -11.1 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (+9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -7.5 (+2.5) | 148.6 (+8.4) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -5.8 (+0.8) | 144.2 (+12.8) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -7.2 (+2.2) | 145.7 (+11.3) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -5.6 (+0.6) | 149.7 (+7.3) | 32% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SLU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 28-7 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 14-4 |
| Home | 8-8 | 14-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.8 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#258) | 12.6 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#104) | 2.77 (#23) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.04 (#81) | 4.36 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#163) | 0.683 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SLU | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 28.7% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 12.7% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 19.5% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.4% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 44.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 77.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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