Betting Lines
| Spread | UNLV -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | UNLV -178 AKR +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNLV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNLV +2 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UNLV -4.1 (-2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.9 (+1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNLV -2.1 (-0.1) | 137.2 (+4.8) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNLV -3.3 (-1.3) | 140.5 (+1.5) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNLV -2.6 (-0.6) | 141.0 (+1.0) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNLV -2.6 (-0.6) | 136.1 (+5.9) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNLV | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 13-5 |
| Home | 12-5 | 13-1 |
| Away | 8-4 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 4-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#175) | 1.6 (#137) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.65 (#238) | 0.81 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#249) | 1.05 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#216) | 0.498 (#173) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNLV | AKR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.0% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.0% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.9% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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