Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | UAB -250 MCN +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MCN +21 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | MCN -3.4 (-17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.0 (-3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 48% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -1.1 (-22.1) | 135.0 (+6.0) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MCN -0.3 (-20.7) | 139.9 (+1.1) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MCN -1.4 (-19.6) | 139.7 (+1.3) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MCN -2.3 (-18.7) | 136.8 (+4.2) | 37% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 30-4 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 17-1 |
| Home | 12-5 | 18-0 |
| Away | 7-5 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 64.8 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#158) | 10.1 (#41) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#75) | 2.22 (#38) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.27 (#68) | 3.79 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#58) | 0.659 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | MCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 28.0% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.5 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 12.7% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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