Betting Lines
| Spread | WASH -15.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | WASH -1400 UCSD +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WASH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WASH +27 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | WASH -8.5 (+18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (-17.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WASH -7.7 (+19.3) | 152.7 (-13.7) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WASH -5.5 (+21.5) | 150.5 (-11.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WASH -5.7 (+21.3) | 151.5 (-12.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WASH -5.7 (+21.3) | 153.8 (-14.8) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WASH | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.6 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#61) | -1.0 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.55 (#140) | -0.40 (#210) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.51 (#99) | -0.29 (#195) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#88) | 0.451 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WASH | UCSD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.7% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 65.4% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.5% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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