Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -31.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +32 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -32.6 (-0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (+32.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -26.8 (+5.2) | 141.5 (+24.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -24.2 (+7.8) | 136.9 (+29.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -28.0 (+4.0) | 136.8 (+29.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -26.8 (+5.2) | 138.0 (+28.0) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 34-5 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 16-0 | 7-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 11-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.3 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 71.1 |
| Massey | 20.1 (#4) | -6.1 (#281) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.68 (#1) | -1.90 (#310) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 7.21 (#1) | -2.84 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.802 (#2) | 0.426 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.0% | 33.5% |
| 3PT% | 40.8% | 26.0% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.1% | 38.0% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 10.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.0% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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