Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -350 JKST +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JKST +4 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -10.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.1 (-17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -5.6 (-9.6) | 152.6 (-6.6) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -6.2 (-10.2) | 152.6 (-6.6) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -5.9 (-9.9) | 153.1 (-7.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -6.3 (-10.3) | 149.8 (-3.8) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 6, 2024 | ARST 66 – 64 JKST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-3 | 6-2 |
| Away | 5-11 | 7-13 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#228) | -6.9 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#268) | -0.54 (#231) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.04 (#280) | -1.53 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.427 (#274) | 0.501 (#169) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 34.2% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 12.4% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.5% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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