Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -2000 JKST +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +2 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -20.1 (-18.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (-15.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -17.2 (-15.2) | 143.5 (-13.5) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -16.4 (-14.4) | 143.8 (-13.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -16.2 (-14.2) | 143.7 (-13.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -15.2 (-13.2) | 145.6 (-15.6) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2023 | JKST 75 – 71 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-11 | 16-18 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 14-4 |
| Home | 14-2 | 8-1 |
| Away | 8-6 | 6-15 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.7 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 1.7 (#135) | -13.5 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#154) | -1.96 (#321) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.25 (#146) | -2.65 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#71) | 0.455 (#251) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 35.9% |
| 3PT% | 27.3% | 29.5% |
| REB / G | 40.3 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 13.1 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.79 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 41.2% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 61.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 17.4% |
Game Analysis
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