He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
McCamish Pavilion · November 29, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread MSST -9.5 Home covered
O/U 138.5 Under
Money GT +400 / MSST -550
Model Predictions
Spread Total GT win
Actual GT +8 126 Won
Massey MSST -11.4 (+19.4) — —
Massey Totals — 137.5 (-11.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 4% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 1% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ MSST -8.4 (+16.4) 139.2 (-13.2) 33% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML MSST -6.8 (+14.8) 136.7 (-10.7) 22% ✗
Baseline ML MSST -8.1 (+16.1) 137.9 (-11.9) 25% ✗
Baseline Plus ML MSST -6.2 (+14.2) 141.1 (-15.1) 34% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 4, 2025 MSST 85 – 73 GT

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings GT MSST
Overall 14-18 21-14
Conference 7-13 8-10
Home 8-7 11-4
Away 4-9 2-8
Neutral 2-2 8-2
Last 5 2-2 5-0
Streak L2 L2
Avg Pts For 71.0 74.1
Avg Pts Against 75.2 69.1
Massey -3.6 (#243) 14.2 (#17)
Bradley-Terry -0.36 (#206) 4.21 (#3)
W. Bradley-Terry -0.09 (#188) 6.37 (#3)
RPI 0.464 (#225) 0.776 (#3)
Shooting & Four Factors GT MSST
FG% 40.6% 43.5%
3PT% 29.8% 30.8%
REB / G 39.0 43.0
OREB / G 15.5 12.0
AST / TO 0.96 1.06
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.1% 50.3%
TOV% 17.3% 18.9%
ORB% 37.6% 33.2%
FT Rate 23.8% 27.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.4% 40.5%
Opp TOV% 16.5% 18.2%
DRB% 68.6% 77.5%
Opp FT Rate 25.2% 19.9%

Game Analysis

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