Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | GT +400 MSST -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GT +8 | 126 | Won |
| Massey | MSST -11.4 (+19.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -8.4 (+16.4) | 139.2 (-13.2) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -6.8 (+14.8) | 136.7 (-10.7) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -8.1 (+16.1) | 137.9 (-11.9) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -6.2 (+14.2) | 141.1 (-15.1) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | MSST 85 – 73 GT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GT | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-7 | 11-4 |
| Away | 4-9 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 69.1 |
| Massey | -3.6 (#243) | 14.2 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#206) | 4.21 (#3) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.09 (#188) | 6.37 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#225) | 0.776 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GT | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 43.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 30.8% |
| REB / G | 39.0 | 43.0 |
| OREB / G | 15.5 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 37.6% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 40.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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