Hallelujah, here she comes. "Skateaway" - Dire Straits
Timmons Arena · November 29, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread FUR -20.5 Away covered
O/U 162.5 Over
Money FUR -4000 / SCST +2200
Model Predictions
Spread Total FUR win
Actual FUR +8 164 Won
Massey FUR -19.9 (-11.9)
Massey Totals 172.2 (-8.2)
Bradley-Terry 96%
Weighted B-T 99%
Baseline Plus ML FUR -15.0 (-7.0) 159.7 (+4.3) 88%
Baseline ML FUR -14.3 (-6.3) 161.3 (+2.7) 88%
Baseline Tuned ML FUR -13.2 (-5.2) 160.2 (+3.8) 87%
Efficiency Plus ML FUR -18.5 (-10.5) 156.0 (+8.0) 90%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 14, 2024 FUR 6864 SCST
Dec 3, 2022 FUR 8876 SCST
Dec 21, 2020 FUR 11852 SCST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FUR SCST
Overall 17-16 14-18
Conference 10-8 9-5
Home 12-3 9-4
Away 3-10 5-13
Neutral 2-3 0-1
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 78.8 69.3
Avg Pts Against 76.7 75.0
Massey 0.7 (#156) -12.9 (#343)
Bradley-Terry 0.09 (#176) -1.73 (#305)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.62 (#148) -2.73 (#306)
RPI 0.502 (#164) 0.433 (#267)
Shooting & Four Factors FUR SCST
FG% 47.6% 40.2%
3PT% 33.1% 24.4%
REB / G 36.4 35.0
OREB / G 11.2 13.2
AST / TO 1.51 0.87
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 55.4% 43.1%
TOV% 17.6% 20.1%
ORB% 30.8% 33.2%
FT Rate 23.0% 23.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 56.2% 55.8%
Opp TOV% 15.8% 21.0%
DRB% 73.7% 66.8%
Opp FT Rate 20.2% 45.8%

Game Analysis

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