Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 163.5 Over |
| Money | UK -260 MIA +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +22 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | UK -10.6 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.8 (-6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -7.9 (+14.1) | 164.6 (+3.4) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -8.1 (+13.9) | 162.3 (+5.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -7.9 (+14.1) | 163.7 (+4.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -10.5 (+11.5) | 165.6 (+2.4) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 7-3 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 89.0 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#26) | 8.5 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#103) | 2.59 (#28) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.75 (#86) | 3.70 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.551 (#104) | 0.648 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 52.4% |
| 3PT% | 42.5% | 45.8% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.3 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 2.45 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 59.7% | 61.5% |
| TOV% | 10.8% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 26.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 13.3% |
Game Analysis
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