Betting Lines
| Spread | PITT -7.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
| Money | PITT -285 MIZ +228 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PITT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +7 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | PITT -22.6 (-29.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (-4.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PITT -14.1 (-21.1) | 145.2 (-10.2) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PITT -17.5 (-24.5) | 141.7 (-6.7) | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PITT -18.5 (-25.5) | 142.7 (-7.7) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PITT -19.2 (-26.2) | 144.3 (-9.3) | 87% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PITT | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 8-24 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 0-18 |
| Home | 13-5 | 6-11 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L19 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 15.0 (#15) | -1.3 (#196) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#91) | -0.15 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.91 (#82) | 0.26 (#167) |
| RPI | 0.540 (#120) | 0.476 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PITT | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 48.5 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 16.2 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.75 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 54.7% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 40.4% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.8% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 81.9% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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