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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
13–2 on winners
spread MAE 8.8
15 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Hampshire
@
UConn
|
+22.2 | 153.7 | 98% | 64–84 | ✓ |
Saint Peter's
@
Rutgers
|
+8.6 | 119.3 | 78% | 40–71 | ✓ |
Troy
@
Eastern Kentucky
|
+4.5 | 150.2 | 66% | 76–77 | ✓ |
Presbyterian
@
Elon
|
+4.5 | 158.1 | 66% | 79–82 | ✓ |
Manhattan
@
Fordham
|
+2.8 | 131.9 | 60% | 61–93 | ✓ |
Western Illinois
@
Wisconsin
|
+27.1 | 148.9 | 99% | 49–71 | ✓ |
UMBC
@
Hampton
|
-1.0 | 173.5 | 46% | 80–76 | ✓ |
Utah Tech
@
Lindenwood
|
+2.8 | 147.7 | 60% | 73–66 | ✗ |
Northern Illinois
@
Northwestern
|
+2.2 | 146.5 | 58% | 67–89 | ✓ |
Houston Christian
@
TCU
|
+32.6 | 165.5 | 100% | 64–101 | ✓ |
UC Santa Barbara
@
Fresno State
|
+1.5 | 159.6 | 55% | 69–65 | ✗ |
Eastern Washington
@
Washington State
|
+27.9 | 151.3 | 99% | 72–82 | ✓ |
Utah
@
Saint Mary's
|
-0.6 | 137.4 | 48% | 78–71 | ✓ |
North Dakota State
@
San José State
|
+12.4 | 132.6 | 87% | 65–78 | ✓ |
Georgia Southern
@
Michigan State
|
+29.8 | 135.6 | 100% | 55–86 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.