Betting Lines
| Spread | NU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | NU -1100 NIU +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NU +22 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | NU -1.5 (+20.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.6 (+8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NU -6.2 (+15.8) | 139.8 (+16.2) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NU -3.9 (+18.1) | 141.5 (+14.5) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NU -3.0 (+19.0) | 141.9 (+14.1) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NU -2.6 (+19.4) | 144.4 (+11.6) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2022 | NU 63 – 46 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 5-9 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 71.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 3.0 (#120) | 7.9 (#55) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.14 (#42) | 3.11 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.15 (#42) | 4.51 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.684 (#15) | 0.651 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 36.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.7% | 10.3% |
| DRB% | 66.4% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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