I like bread and butter. I like toast and jam. "Bread and Butter" - The Newbeats
Welsh-Ryan Arena · November 28, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread NU -13.5 Home covered
O/U 141.5 Over
Money NU -1100 / NIU +700
Model Predictions
Spread Total NU win
Actual NU +22 156 Won
Massey NU -1.5 (+20.5) — —
Massey Totals — 147.6 (+8.4) —
Bradley-Terry — — 58% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 53% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ NU -6.2 (+15.8) 139.8 (+16.2) 79% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML NU -3.9 (+18.1) 141.5 (+14.5) 58% ✓
Baseline ML NU -3.0 (+19.0) 141.9 (+14.1) 64% ✓
Baseline Plus ML NU -2.6 (+19.4) 144.4 (+11.6) 70% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 12, 2022 NU 63 – 46 NIU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings NU NIU
Overall 22-12 11-20
Conference 12-8 5-13
Home 15-2 5-9
Away 4-7 5-11
Neutral 3-3 1-0
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L1 W1
Avg Pts For 73.3 71.4
Avg Pts Against 69.1 79.2
Massey 3.0 (#120) 7.9 (#55)
Bradley-Terry 2.14 (#42) 3.11 (#18)
W. Bradley-Terry 3.15 (#42) 4.51 (#21)
RPI 0.684 (#15) 0.651 (#27)
Shooting & Four Factors NU NIU
FG% 43.0% 47.1%
3PT% 29.1% 36.4%
REB / G 30.2 39.0
OREB / G 10.8 9.0
AST / TO 1.41 1.02
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.3% 53.8%
TOV% 14.7% 16.6%
ORB% 32.5% 26.6%
FT Rate 20.6% 36.1%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 52.9% 47.0%
Opp TOV% 25.7% 10.3%
DRB% 66.4% 67.9%
Opp FT Rate 23.0% 18.6%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.