Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -28.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +31 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -30.6 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.7 (+4.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -23.4 (+7.6) | 138.4 (+2.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -24.4 (+6.6) | 136.5 (+4.5) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -29.0 (+2.0) | 135.8 (+5.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -27.7 (+3.3) | 136.3 (+4.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-15 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-4 | 6-7 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 79.2 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#35) | -13.2 (#346) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#161) | -3.06 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#98) | -4.28 (#341) |
| RPI | 0.523 (#144) | 0.300 (#358) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.8% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 38.7 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 0.58 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.1% | 58.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 64.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.9% | 33.9% |
Game Analysis
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