Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
| Money | FOR -700 MAN +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +32 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -3.8 (+28.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.8 (+21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -5.0 (+27.0) | 137.4 (+16.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -4.0 (+28.0) | 134.0 (+20.0) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -2.8 (+29.2) | 134.4 (+19.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -3.5 (+28.5) | 136.7 (+17.3) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 13, 2025 | FOR 82 – 53 MAN |
| Nov 16, 2024 | MAN 78 – 76 FOR |
| Nov 13, 2021 | MAN 66 – 60 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 7-23 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 4-16 |
| Home | 6-11 | 3-10 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 76.1 |
| Massey | -4.2 (#248) | -1.6 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.17 (#268) | 2.27 (#35) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.79 (#272) | 3.40 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#255) | 0.592 (#61) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | MAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 14.0 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.57 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.1% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 24.1% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.7% | 15.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 66.9% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.3% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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