Betting Lines
| Spread | SJSU -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.0 Over |
| Money | SJSU -335 NDSU +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJSU +13 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | SJSU -12.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (+9.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJSU -10.0 (+3.0) | 135.7 (+7.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJSU -10.6 (+2.4) | 133.2 (+9.8) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJSU -11.6 (+1.4) | 132.9 (+10.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJSU -10.7 (+2.3) | 132.4 (+10.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 5, 2023 | NDSU 83 – 78 SJSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJSU | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 8-8 |
| Home | 6-9 | 10-4 |
| Away | 1-12 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L7 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 76.3 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#106) | -1.5 (#197) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#134) | 0.25 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#135) | -0.93 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#93) | 0.519 (#148) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJSU | NDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 32.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.2% | 22.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.8% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 64.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 17.7% |
Game Analysis
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