Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Over |
| Money | NDSU -155 SJSU +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +5 | 161 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -1.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (+21.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -0.5 (+4.5) | 135.9 (+25.1) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -2.0 (+3.0) | 138.8 (+22.2) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -2.0 (+3.0) | 139.3 (+21.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -0.8 (+4.2) | 138.1 (+22.9) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 28, 2023 | SJSU 78 – 65 NDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 2-16 |
| Home | 10-4 | 6-9 |
| Away | 5-11 | 1-12 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L7 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 68.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.3 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#212) | 2.2 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.07 (#195) | -0.04 (#192) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#221) | -0.20 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#177) | 0.462 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.1% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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