Lord Lucan is missing. "Lord Lucan is Missing" - The Dodgems
Baptist Health Arena · November 28, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread EKU -6.0 Away covered
O/U 155.0 Under
Money EKU -225 / TROY +185
Model Predictions
Spread Total EKU win
Actual EKU +1 153 Won
Massey EKU -4.0 (-3.0)
Massey Totals 149.8 (+3.2)
Bradley-Terry 80%
Weighted B-T 79%
Baseline Plus ML EKU -4.3 (-3.3) 148.7 (+4.3) 63%
Baseline ML EKU -3.4 (-2.4) 146.8 (+6.2) 62%
Baseline Tuned ML EKU -3.1 (-2.1) 145.9 (+7.1) 59%
Efficiency Plus ML EKU -3.1 (-2.1) 151.4 (+1.6) 72%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 1, 2024 TROY 8474 EKU
Dec 22, 2023 TROY 8881 EKU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings EKU TROY
Overall 17-14 20-12
Conference 12-4 13-5
Home 13-4 15-2
Away 4-10 5-9
Neutral 0-0 0-1
Last 5 0-2 1-3
Streak L3 L2
Avg Pts For 76.5 77.0
Avg Pts Against 77.4 72.6
Massey -7.8 (#312) -5.4 (#273)
Bradley-Terry -2.21 (#326) -2.30 (#330)
W. Bradley-Terry -3.30 (#325) -3.10 (#321)
RPI 0.375 (#323) 0.331 (#348)
Shooting & Four Factors EKU TROY
FG% 35.6% 41.2%
3PT% 28.1% 30.3%
REB / G 49.0 41.0
OREB / G 19.5 14.5
AST / TO 0.80 0.64
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 41.1% 46.7%
TOV% 16.7% 23.5%
ORB% 37.9% 36.0%
FT Rate 12.3% 36.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.0% 48.9%
Opp TOV% 14.2% 19.3%
DRB% 71.1% 70.2%
Opp FT Rate 12.2% 38.8%

Game Analysis

Loading game analysis…

Failed to load game analysis.