Betting Lines
| Spread | EKU -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Under |
| Money | EKU -225 TROY +185 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EKU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EKU +1 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | EKU -4.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EKU -4.3 (-3.3) | 148.7 (+4.3) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EKU -3.4 (-2.4) | 146.8 (+6.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EKU -3.1 (-2.1) | 145.9 (+7.1) | 59% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EKU -3.1 (-2.1) | 151.4 (+1.6) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 1, 2024 | TROY 84 – 74 EKU |
| Dec 22, 2023 | TROY 88 – 81 EKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EKU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 12-4 | 13-5 |
| Home | 13-4 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-10 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -7.8 (#312) | -5.4 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.21 (#326) | -2.30 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.30 (#325) | -3.10 (#321) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#323) | 0.331 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EKU | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 35.6% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 28.1% | 30.3% |
| REB / G | 49.0 | 41.0 |
| OREB / G | 19.5 | 14.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.1% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 23.5% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 36.0% |
| FT Rate | 12.3% | 36.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.2% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.2% | 38.8% |
Game Analysis
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