Just tell me where it hurts and I'll tell you who to call. "Quinn the Eskimo" - Bob Dylan
Trojan Arena · December 1, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread TROY -8.5 Home covered
O/U 146.5 Over
Money TROY -450 / EKU +340
Model Predictions
Spread Total TROY win
Actual TROY +10 158 Won
Massey TROY -5.0 (+5.0)
Massey Totals 143.5 (+14.5)
Bradley-Terry 83%
Weighted B-T 77%
Baseline Plus ML TROY -3.5 (+6.5) 142.2 (+15.8) 67%
Baseline ML TROY -4.7 (+5.3) 142.0 (+16.0) 69%
Baseline Tuned ML TROY -4.6 (+5.4) 141.6 (+16.4) 69%
Efficiency Plus ML TROY -4.3 (+5.7) 142.6 (+15.4) 69%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 22, 2023 TROY 8881 EKU
Nov 28, 2023 EKU 7776 TROY

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TROY EKU
Overall 23-11 18-14
Conference 13-5 12-6
Home 11-4 10-3
Away 9-6 7-9
Neutral 3-1 1-2
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 72.0 76.5
Avg Pts Against 66.3 75.9
Massey 2.3 (#128) 2.9 (#117)
Bradley-Terry 0.31 (#143) -0.30 (#205)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.39 (#133) 0.31 (#142)
RPI 0.526 (#124) 0.491 (#180)
Shooting & Four Factors TROY EKU
FG% 45.8% 42.0%
3PT% 29.9% 33.7%
REB / G 34.9 36.5
OREB / G 12.3 13.7
AST / TO 0.91 1.25
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.5% 49.2%
TOV% 23.3% 15.5%
ORB% 37.1% 34.7%
FT Rate 24.5% 16.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 51.5% 51.2%
Opp TOV% 22.0% 20.4%
DRB% 68.1% 65.9%
Opp FT Rate 16.5% 25.8%

Game Analysis

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