Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -450 EKU +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +10 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -5.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.5 (+14.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -3.5 (+6.5) | 142.2 (+15.8) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -4.7 (+5.3) | 142.0 (+16.0) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -4.6 (+5.4) | 141.6 (+16.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -4.3 (+5.7) | 142.6 (+15.4) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2023 | TROY 88 – 81 EKU |
| Nov 28, 2023 | EKU 77 – 76 TROY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-4 | 10-3 |
| Away | 9-6 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 2.3 (#128) | 2.9 (#117) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#143) | -0.30 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.39 (#133) | 0.31 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#124) | 0.491 (#180) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | EKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 29.9% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 23.3% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.0% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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