And I'm telling you son, well, it ain't no fun staring straight down a forty-four. "Gimme Three Steps" - Lynyrd Skynyrd
Trojan Arena · December 22, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread TROY -2.5 Home covered
O/U 152.5 Over
Money TROY -138 / EKU +140
Model Predictions
Spread Total TROY win
Actual TROY +7 169 Won
Massey TROY -9.7 (-2.7)
Massey Totals 155.4 (+13.6)
Bradley-Terry 83%
Weighted B-T 96%
Baseline Plus ML TROY -8.0 (-1.0) 152.1 (+16.9) 76%
Baseline ML TROY -8.3 (-1.3) 148.4 (+20.6) 76%
Baseline Tuned ML TROY -8.1 (-1.1) 147.0 (+22.0) 78%
Efficiency Plus ML TROY -7.9 (-0.9) 152.0 (+17.0) 75%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 1, 2024 TROY 8474 EKU
Nov 28, 2023 EKU 7776 TROY

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TROY EKU
Overall 20-12 17-14
Conference 13-5 12-4
Home 15-2 13-4
Away 5-9 4-10
Neutral 0-1 0-0
Last 5 2-3 1-4
Streak L2 L3
Avg Pts For 77.0 76.5
Avg Pts Against 72.6 77.4
Massey -2.7 (#219) -7.9 (#301)
Bradley-Terry -1.95 (#321) -2.60 (#339)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.61 (#283) -3.75 (#343)
RPI 0.413 (#310) 0.348 (#358)
Shooting & Four Factors TROY EKU
FG% 40.9% 40.2%
3PT% 36.9% 31.3%
REB / G 39.2 41.6
OREB / G 14.5 15.3
AST / TO 0.77 0.93
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 48.1% 45.6%
TOV% 23.2% 18.2%
ORB% 37.7% 35.3%
FT Rate 29.1% 16.4%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.8% 51.0%
Opp TOV% 18.6% 16.0%
DRB% 68.8% 67.2%
Opp FT Rate 28.2% 18.1%

Game Analysis

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