I'm so tired of being lonely, I still have some love to give. "Handle With Care" - The Travelling WIlburys
Save Mart Center · November 28, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread FRES -1.0 Away covered
O/U 141.0 Under
Money FRES -120 / UCSB +100
Model Predictions
Spread Total FRES win
Actual UCSB +4 134 Lost
Massey FRES -2.3 (-6.3)
Massey Totals 159.8 (-25.8)
Bradley-Terry 83%
Weighted B-T 81%
Baseline Plus ML FRES -3.9 (-7.9) 153.1 (-19.1) 60%
Baseline ML FRES -3.2 (-7.2) 152.8 (-18.8) 63%
Baseline Tuned ML FRES -3.3 (-7.3) 151.4 (-17.4) 63%
Efficiency Plus ML FRES -0.2 (-4.2) 145.8 (-11.8) 42%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 14, 2024 UCSB 9186 FRES
Nov 11, 2022 UCSB 6154 FRES

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings FRES UCSB
Overall 12-21 16-15
Conference 4-14 9-11
Home 7-9 9-7
Away 3-9 6-7
Neutral 2-3 1-1
Last 5 2-2 1-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 67.4 73.1
Avg Pts Against 74.2 73.3
Massey -5.2 (#266) -1.1 (#183)
Bradley-Terry -0.43 (#213) -0.72 (#244)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.06 (#238) -0.98 (#235)
RPI 0.472 (#208) 0.433 (#266)
Shooting & Four Factors FRES UCSB
FG% 49.1% 54.2%
3PT% 40.3% 40.7%
REB / G 35.0 38.3
OREB / G 9.8 9.7
AST / TO 0.74 1.13
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 56.0% 61.4%
TOV% 23.6% 24.0%
ORB% 31.5% 34.1%
FT Rate 21.2% 26.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.4% 52.1%
Opp TOV% 15.0% 11.0%
DRB% 75.4% 76.1%
Opp FT Rate 21.4% 24.3%

Game Analysis

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