Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -1.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
| Money | FRES -120 UCSB +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +4 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | FRES -2.3 (-6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.8 (-25.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -3.9 (-7.9) | 153.1 (-19.1) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -3.2 (-7.2) | 152.8 (-18.8) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -3.3 (-7.3) | 151.4 (-17.4) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -0.2 (-4.2) | 145.8 (-11.8) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 14, 2024 | UCSB 91 – 86 FRES |
| Nov 11, 2022 | UCSB 61 – 54 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-11 |
| Home | 7-9 | 9-7 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 73.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#266) | -1.1 (#183) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#213) | -0.72 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.06 (#238) | -0.98 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#208) | 0.433 (#266) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | UCSB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.1% | 54.2% |
| 3PT% | 40.3% | 40.7% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 61.4% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 11.0% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 24.3% |
Game Analysis
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