Lights going out, and a kick in the balls. "That's Entertainment" - The Jam
The Thunderdome · November 14, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread UCSB -12.5 Away covered
O/U 151.5 Over
Money UCSB -1000 / FRES +600
Model Predictions
Spread Total UCSB win
Actual UCSB +5 177 Won
Massey UCSB -30.8 (-25.8)
Massey Totals 141.7 (+35.3)
Bradley-Terry 96%
Weighted B-T 99%
Baseline Plus ML UCSB -22.0 (-17.0) 148.5 (+28.5) 90%
Baseline ML UCSB -27.5 (-22.5) 139.8 (+37.2) 90%
Baseline Tuned ML UCSB -21.7 (-16.7) 148.3 (+28.7) 90%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 28, 2023 UCSB 6965 FRES
Nov 11, 2022 UCSB 6154 FRES

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings UCSB FRES
Overall 21-13 6-26
Conference 11-9 2-18
Home 12-5 5-9
Away 7-7 1-14
Neutral 2-1 0-3
Last 5 1-0 1-0
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 73.2 70.7
Avg Pts Against 69.4 80.7
Massey 20.8 (#2) -0.4 (#186)
Bradley-Terry 1.74 (#30) 0.41 (#147)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.69 (#24) 0.52 (#147)
RPI 0.500 (#164) 0.375 (#258)
Shooting & Four Factors UCSB FRES
FG% 52.9% 34.4%
3PT% 43.2% 26.7%
REB / G 45.0 42.0
OREB / G 9.0 14.0
AST / TO 2.88 0.77
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 64.7% 41.0%
TOV% 11.1% 18.8%
ORB% 26.5% 32.6%
FT Rate 8.8% 23.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 34.1% 45.9%
Opp TOV% 15.2% 23.2%
DRB% 76.6% 75.7%
Opp FT Rate 12.1% 1.6%

Game Analysis

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