Betting Lines
| Spread | UCSB -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UCSB -1000 FRES +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCSB +5 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | UCSB -30.8 (-25.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.7 (+35.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCSB -22.0 (-17.0) | 148.5 (+28.5) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCSB -27.5 (-22.5) | 139.8 (+37.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCSB -21.7 (-16.7) | 148.3 (+28.7) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 28, 2023 | UCSB 69 – 65 FRES |
| Nov 11, 2022 | UCSB 61 – 54 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSB | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 2-18 |
| Home | 12-5 | 5-9 |
| Away | 7-7 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-0 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 80.7 |
| Massey | 20.8 (#2) | -0.4 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.74 (#30) | 0.41 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.69 (#24) | 0.52 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#164) | 0.375 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSB | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.9% | 34.4% |
| 3PT% | 43.2% | 26.7% |
| REB / G | 45.0 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 2.88 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 64.7% | 41.0% |
| TOV% | 11.1% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 8.8% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 34.1% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 23.2% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.1% | 1.6% |
Game Analysis
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