Betting Lines
| Spread | HAMP -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | HAMP -110 UMBC +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAMP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +4 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -0.2 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.9 (-16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HAMP -0.1 (-4.1) | 162.6 (-6.6) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HAMP -1.1 (-5.1) | 161.0 (-5.0) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HAMP -0.5 (-4.5) | 159.4 (-3.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -1.3 (-2.7) | 158.9 (-2.9) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 20, 2024 | HAMP 78 – 68 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAMP | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-24 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 6-10 |
| Home | 5-9 | 6-9 |
| Away | 1-12 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.5 | 81.2 |
| Massey | -11.1 (#334) | -4.5 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#325) | -1.51 (#293) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.55 (#330) | -2.08 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.335 (#345) | 0.365 (#328) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAMP | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.71 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 36.7% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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