Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC -300 HAMP +240 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HAMP +10 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -6.3 (-16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (+10.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -3.1 (-13.1) | 132.3 (+13.7) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -5.3 (-15.3) | 135.1 (+10.9) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -3.9 (-13.9) | 133.3 (+12.7) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -4.0 (-14.0) | 132.1 (+13.9) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 28, 2023 | UMBC 80 – 76 HAMP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-9 | 10-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.6 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -8.3 (#313) | -7.7 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.42 (#344) | -2.32 (#339) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.60 (#338) | -3.26 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.360 (#316) | 0.484 (#203) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | HAMP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 29.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 25.3% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 17.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.56 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.8% | 34.1% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 38.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.3% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 64.4% | 63.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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