Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | APP -550 ETSU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +11 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | APP -15.1 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (-6.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -11.0 (+0.0) | 141.2 (-8.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -12.9 (-1.9) | 141.5 (-8.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -13.4 (-2.4) | 142.2 (-9.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -13.6 (-2.6) | 142.2 (-9.2) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 24, 2022 | APP 74 – 70 ETSU |
| Nov 12, 2021 | APP 69 – 67 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 8-10 |
| Home | 15-0 | 10-4 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 70.8 |
| Massey | 5.7 (#89) | -3.1 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#93) | -0.27 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#91) | -0.50 (#208) |
| RPI | 0.544 (#113) | 0.467 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.2% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 40.8 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.29 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 15.8% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.3% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 76.4% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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