They put a hot wire to my head / Because of the things I did and said "Rise" - Public Image Ltd.
Holmes Convocation Center · November 29, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread APP -10.5 Home covered
O/U 136.5 Under
Money APP -550 / ETSU +400
Model Predictions
Spread Total APP win
Actual APP +11 133 Won
Massey APP -15.1 (-4.1) — —
Massey Totals — 139.5 (-6.5) —
Bradley-Terry — — 93% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 97% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ APP -11.0 (+0.0) 141.2 (-8.2) 85% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML APP -12.9 (-1.9) 141.5 (-8.5) 86% ✓
Baseline ML APP -13.4 (-2.4) 142.2 (-9.2) 85% ✓
Baseline Plus ML APP -13.6 (-2.6) 142.2 (-9.2) 86% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 24, 2022 APP 74 – 70 ETSU
Nov 12, 2021 APP 69 – 67 ETSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings APP ETSU
Overall 27-7 19-16
Conference 16-2 8-10
Home 15-0 10-4
Away 8-5 5-11
Neutral 4-2 4-1
Last 5 3-2 2-3
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 77.1 70.4
Avg Pts Against 68.7 70.8
Massey 5.7 (#89) -3.1 (#231)
Bradley-Terry 1.13 (#93) -0.27 (#200)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.67 (#91) -0.50 (#208)
RPI 0.544 (#113) 0.467 (#219)
Shooting & Four Factors APP ETSU
FG% 46.2% 41.0%
3PT% 32.5% 33.3%
REB / G 40.8 37.0
OREB / G 11.0 12.4
AST / TO 1.29 0.77
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.2% 48.5%
TOV% 15.9% 21.4%
ORB% 30.1% 32.3%
FT Rate 15.8% 20.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 45.3% 51.0%
Opp TOV% 15.2% 18.2%
DRB% 76.4% 69.5%
Opp FT Rate 20.8% 23.7%

Game Analysis

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