Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -125 APP +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +4 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -9.1 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -5.0 (-9.0) | 139.3 (+4.7) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -6.0 (-10.0) | 138.9 (+5.1) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -5.9 (-9.9) | 139.4 (+4.6) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -5.6 (-9.6) | 141.8 (+2.2) | 72% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 29, 2023 | APP 72 – 61 ETSU |
| Nov 12, 2021 | APP 69 – 67 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-9 |
| Home | 7-9 | 10-7 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 65.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 66.1 |
| Massey | -2.3 (#216) | -4.2 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#258) | -1.25 (#267) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.97 (#271) | -1.65 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#287) | 0.358 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.6% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 21.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 79.1% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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