I don't know why I let that mean woman make me a fool. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
Freedom Hall (TN) · November 24, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread ETSU -2.5 Away covered
O/U 135.5 Over
Money ETSU -125 / APP +130
Model Predictions
Spread Total ETSU win
Actual APP +4 144 Lost
Massey ETSU -9.1 (-13.1) — —
Massey Totals — 137.4 (+6.6) —
Bradley-Terry — — 86% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 82% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ ETSU -5.0 (-9.0) 139.3 (+4.7) 72% ✗
Baseline Tuned ML ETSU -6.0 (-10.0) 138.9 (+5.1) 71% ✗
Baseline ML ETSU -5.9 (-9.9) 139.4 (+4.6) 70% ✗
Baseline Plus ML ETSU -5.6 (-9.6) 141.8 (+2.2) 72% ✗

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 29, 2023 APP 72 – 61 ETSU
Nov 12, 2021 APP 69 – 67 ETSU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ETSU APP
Overall 12-20 16-16
Conference 8-10 9-9
Home 7-9 10-7
Away 4-9 6-7
Neutral 1-2 0-2
Last 5 2-2 3-2
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 68.0 65.6
Avg Pts Against 69.5 66.1
Massey -2.3 (#216) -4.2 (#247)
Bradley-Terry -0.97 (#258) -1.25 (#267)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.97 (#271) -1.65 (#259)
RPI 0.410 (#287) 0.358 (#321)
Shooting & Four Factors ETSU APP
FG% 45.0% 41.6%
3PT% 28.6% 34.6%
REB / G 37.0 35.8
OREB / G 10.5 8.2
AST / TO 0.82 1.17
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.8% 49.0%
TOV% 19.0% 14.9%
ORB% 30.0% 21.7%
FT Rate 30.3% 19.6%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 53.6% 47.6%
Opp TOV% 19.6% 16.8%
DRB% 79.1% 75.0%
Opp FT Rate 16.2% 20.3%

Game Analysis

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