All my failings exposed, gets a taste in my mouth as desperation takes hold "Love Will Tear Us Apart" - Joy Division
Gentile Arena · November 29, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread LUC -17.5 Away covered
O/U 142.5 Under
Money LUC -2500 / CHST +1400
Model Predictions
Spread Total LUC win
Actual LUC +9 115 Won
Massey LUC -17.2 (-8.2)
Massey Totals 140.9 (-25.9)
Bradley-Terry 99%
Weighted B-T 100%
Baseline Plus ML LUC -12.3 (-3.3) 143.2 (-28.2) 84%
Model 4 ML LUC -10.0 (-1.0) 142.6 (-27.6) 82%
Model 3 ML LUC -12.2 (-3.2) 141.2 (-26.2) 86%
Baseline ML LUC -12.8 (-3.8) 142.5 (-27.5) 85%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 14, 2025 CHST 8475 LUC
Nov 5, 2024 LUC 7972 CHST
Nov 17, 2021 LUC 9256 CHST
Dec 9, 2020 LUC 8851 CHST

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings LUC CHST
Neutral 1-3 2-2
Last 5 3-2 1-4
Massey -0.1 (#163) -10.9 (#331)
Bradley-Terry 0.48 (#145) -2.63 (#335)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.27 (#114) -4.51 (#346)
RPI 0.529 (#139) 0.329 (#348)
Shooting & Four Factors LUC CHST
FG% 43.9% 40.2%
3PT% 35.8% 26.8%
REB / G 35.5 32.0
OREB / G 7.7 10.4
AST / TO 1.09 0.63
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.2% 45.0%
TOV% 19.1% 19.2%
ORB% 23.2% 27.2%
FT Rate 25.1% 26.0%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.3% 53.8%
Opp TOV% 15.5% 22.1%
DRB% 73.9% 66.3%
Opp FT Rate 20.4% 24.0%

Game Analysis

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