Betting Lines
| Spread | SC -8.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
| Money | SC -350 ND +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SC +12 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | SC -17.6 (-5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (-14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SC -10.8 (+1.2) | 135.6 (-17.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SC -13.6 (-1.6) | 135.6 (-17.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SC -13.6 (-1.6) | 135.5 (-17.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SC -13.1 (-1.1) | 135.0 (-17.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-3 | 9-8 |
| Away | 8-3 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 64.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#75) | -4.7 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.43 (#12) | 0.13 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.04 (#12) | 0.23 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#43) | 0.544 (#114) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SC | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 28.1% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 18.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.2% | 18.3% |
Game Analysis
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