Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | MD -1700 RID +950 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +27 | 179 | Won |
| Massey | MD -11.6 (+15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 110.1 (+68.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -12.6 (+14.4) | 132.0 (+47.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -8.1 (+18.9) | 128.0 (+51.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -8.5 (+18.5) | 127.2 (+51.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -9.1 (+17.9) | 128.3 (+50.7) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | RID |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 12-8 |
| Home | 11-6 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 6-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 70.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#133) | -3.4 (#236) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#244) | -1.34 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.53 (#212) | -2.20 (#285) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#206) | 0.441 (#258) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | RID |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.3% | 33.9% |
| 3PT% | 21.4% | 22.5% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 13.7 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.72 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.8% | 37.5% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 36.0% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 14.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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