Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | LR -120 BALL +125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LR +26 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | LR -7.2 (+18.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LR -1.7 (+24.3) | 148.2 (+5.8) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LR -3.6 (+22.4) | 148.8 (+5.2) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LR -3.3 (+22.7) | 150.0 (+4.0) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LR -3.9 (+22.1) | 148.6 (+5.4) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 16, 2025 | LR 68 – 62 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LR | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-7 |
| Away | 6-6 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#204) | -2.5 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.36 (#205) | 1.00 (#100) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#202) | 1.30 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#199) | 0.570 (#82) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LR | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.1% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 25.8% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.23 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.3% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 31.4% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 37.5% | 15.9% |
Game Analysis
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