Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -21.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 126.0 Over |
| Money | PROV -4500 WAG +1550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +34 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -16.7 (+17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.8 (+17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -17.1 (+16.9) | 133.8 (+4.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -12.3 (+21.7) | 130.2 (+7.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -12.7 (+21.3) | 128.3 (+9.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -12.4 (+21.6) | 130.5 (+7.5) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-9 |
| Home | 14-5 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 9-10 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 62.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#99) | -5.3 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.01 (#98) | -1.33 (#278) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.88 (#84) | -1.83 (#273) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#63) | 0.400 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | WAG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 35.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.4% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 41.8% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 24.1% | 16.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 41.2% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 71.8% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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