Betting Lines
| Spread | DUQ -5.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | DUQ -240 UCI +196 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +4 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | DUQ -2.7 (+1.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.9 (-23.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUQ -3.5 (+0.5) | 145.7 (-17.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUQ -4.6 (-0.6) | 146.4 (-18.4) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DUQ -4.3 (-0.3) | 147.5 (-19.5) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUQ -4.0 (+0.0) | 148.7 (-20.7) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | DUQ 70 – 54 UCI |
| Dec 19, 2021 | DUQ 76 – 54 UCI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-12 | 24-10 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 17-3 |
| Home | 13-4 | 13-0 |
| Away | 5-6 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 76.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#92) | 9.2 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#74) | 2.18 (#41) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#60) | 2.90 (#48) |
| RPI | 0.571 (#83) | 0.591 (#65) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 44.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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