Betting Lines
| Spread | UCI -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DUQ +22 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | UCI -14.8 (+36.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCI -8.8 (+30.8) | 131.6 (-1.6) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCI -11.5 (+33.5) | 130.9 (-0.9) | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCI -10.7 (+32.7) | 131.6 (-1.6) | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCI -9.8 (+31.8) | 131.1 (-1.1) | 23% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 21, 2024 | DUQ 70 – 54 UCI |
| Nov 30, 2023 | DUQ 66 – 62 UCI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUQ | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-24 | 15-10 |
| Conference | 1-16 | 9-5 |
| Home | 3-11 | 9-1 |
| Away | 1-10 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L17 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 61.4 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#263) | 9.8 (#42) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.15 (#263) | 1.58 (#63) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.55 (#270) | 2.13 (#65) |
| RPI | 0.449 (#261) | 0.638 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUQ | UCI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.9% | 39.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 44.5% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 31.7% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 41.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 25.4% |
Game Analysis
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