Betting Lines
| Spread | TNST -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | AAMU +230 TNST -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AAMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AAMU +2 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | TNST -8.2 (+10.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TNST -6.6 (+8.6) | 143.0 (+25.0) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TNST -6.9 (+8.9) | 146.6 (+21.4) | 26% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TNST -6.8 (+8.8) | 148.4 (+19.6) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TNST -7.4 (+9.4) | 144.8 (+23.2) | 28% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 4, 2025 | AAMU 80 – 53 TNST |
| Nov 17, 2024 | TNST 81 – 71 AAMU |
| Nov 15, 2022 | TNST 87 – 76 AAMU |
| Nov 10, 2021 | AAMU 82 – 73 TNST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AAMU | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-23 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-15 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -13.2 (#349) | 1.5 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.16 (#326) | 0.06 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.23 (#321) | 0.90 (#135) |
| RPI | 0.347 (#340) | 0.452 (#242) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AAMU | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.0% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 30.5 |
| OREB / G | 13.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 41.7% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 22.4% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 31.9% | 26.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 60.0% | 54.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 23.1% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 65.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.0% | 25.8% |
Game Analysis
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